During 2009-2010 I conducted research on artificial general intelligence (AGI) with Ben Goertzel and Ted Goertzel. We conducted a survey of AGI experts at the AGI-09 conference.
The write-up of this survey has been published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change as "How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment".
A non-technical summary was published in h+ Magazine as "How long till human-level AI? What do the experts say?".
A blog discussion of the h+ Magazine article was posted at Moral Machines.
The survey instrument is available here: ExpertElicitation_AGI09.doc.
Our survey is adapted from several previous expert elicitations, in particular the one used in:
-- Morgan, M. G.; Adams, P.; and Keith, D. 2006. Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing. Climatic Change 75(1-2): 195-214.
For more recent work on AGI (as of June 2016), please see the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute's Emerging Technologies Project
Created 7 Feb 2010 * Updated 20 Jun 2016